R.I.P. Mutahi Ngunyi. Today, i heard about the demise of one of the most clairvoyant political scientists of our time....albeit later learnt that his demise is only true in the online community, not in real life. But what precipitated this online pillorying of this most-celebrated political analyst is a hypothesis majority of the people were unwilling to accept. Ngunyi's assumption, met with vituperation and foaming at the mouth by his most ardent of critics, was that the Jubilee coalition would easily go ahead to clinch the much coveted house on the hill, this based on historical fact such as voter turnout in previous elections and ethnic-based voting or voting along tribal lines. I am by no means a political scientist or pundit much less a scientist but as Ngunyi mentioned in one of his interviews with a local media house, it does not take a rocket scientist or a neurosurgeon to draw some conclusions given the raw statistics.Let us then have a go at it.
According to IEBC voter register statistics, the following were the numbers as at the closing of voter registration in late December. Rift Valley Province has the largest number of registered voters at 3,373,853 out of the 14.3 million national tally. Central was second with 2,190,477, Eastern (2,092,883), Nyanza (1,954,756), Nairobi (1,778,908), Western (1,434,987), Coast (1,164,083), and North Eastern (347,457). We know that for one to be elected president, they will need at least 50 plus one percent of the national vote AND at least 25% in at least half of the counties and we are also aware that voter turn out during the last three general elections has not been greater than 70% but nevertheless, let us now look at how the provinces mentioned above are likely to vote, based on precedent.
For the sake of brevity and fact, we will waive the presidential candidates who are unlikely (based on opinion polls) to garner significant numbers.If we give Jubilee 95% of the Central province vote, no one is likely to dispute that, based on the historical trend of this community voting for its "own". If we give them more than three-quarters of the Rift vote, again, i don't believe this will be met with too much bitterness. Nairobi could swing which ever way, but again, not less than 60%-65% will rest in Jubilee's hands. At this point, Jubilee would be in a commanding lead, most likely for the run off if not the presidency.
What does all this mean? ON PAPER, Jubilee have the numbers; the reality on the ground come election day could be a starkly different one given the ebb and flow of the electorate and the machinations and scheming of those in power.As they say, in politics, twenty four hours is a painfully long duration. And the long and short of it is that Ngunyi has a right to voice his opinion, just like any other private citizen does and going by his incisive, almost prophetic and well thought-out articles in the past, what he said does indeed deserve some consideration and thought. Let us approach his hypotheses with a 'listen and think' attitude rather than placing blind trust in everything he says..
My two pennies...
