So, we're 50!

Kenya celebrates fifty years of self rule today, one month after the grisly Westgate mall attack. And to correct my sister who made today's morning's announcements in church,  we are celebrating 50 years of independence, not fifty years of existence!  Nonetheless, have we taken a moment to ponder what exactly it is that we are celebrating, besides age and a new national symbol? We have a lot on our plate at the moment. And The president's demeanor during the celebrations today at Nyayo stadium really belies the delicate situation he, and fifty-year-old Kenya is currently facing. It was a strong public display of equanimity and being in control of the situation, both desirable qualities in a leader, but perhaps beneath that outer veneer of confidence lies a concerned and disturbed leader. How we navigate some of the issues that assail us -The cases at the ICC; the crisis at the Judiciary; successful implementation of the constitution, amid a host of numerous other national issues -will determine the success our young nation attains in the many years to come. Key to this is the need to sacrifice political expediency at the altar of our nation's interests, a departure from the old way of doing things, or business as usual. Only then will we be able to chant "Long live Kenya." Failure to do so will set us on the same path we trod soon after the 1st liberation in 1963. 
Many of the ideals fought for and envisioned were quickly abandoned soon after independence in exchange for personal gratification and enrichment. We lost many bright, nationalist and visionary leaders. Dissenters were quickly and summarily silenced and relegated to political oblivion as the government cracked down on 'those trying to destroy the Uhuru we fought so hard to attain.' 

Let the 2nd liberation stand for something real and for posterity.

Happy Mashujaa day!

Lessons from Westgate

The dust is beginning to settle; the burning mattresses are surely all consumed by now; the so-called rescuers are supposedly all back at their respective barracks by now, loot in tow. But as a Nation, how do we pick up all the pieces, dust ourselves off and turn over a new leaf? What lessons can we claim to have learned from this tragedy? 

Amnesia can kill

In an interview with AlJazeera, Alshabab's spokesman for military operations, Abdulaziz Muscab, quipped that the reason they did not strike Nairobi sooner was, among other reasons, "Kenyans had been expecting an attack." Sheikh Abdulaziz wen't further to state that their aim was "to attack our enemy when they least expect an attack." Classic Art of War.

Soon after KDF's misguided foray into Somalia, an announcement by Alshabab warning of "retaliatory attacks" was released by the rag-tag militants. A knee-jerk reaction followed in Nairobi with heightened security (read:increased body scans) by security personnel, uneasy city inhabitants and predawn government crackdowns on perceived militant sympathizers and co-conspirators. Remember Elgiva Bwire, the 28-year-old who was  sentenced to life in prison after pleading guilty to grenade attacks in Nairobi? For once it seemed that the Police were doing a bit more than demanding kitu kidogo along our jam packed, dilapidated roads or chasing some corpulent, corrupt female officer for outstretching her hand to receive her daily bread.

But all the fervent activity was soon over. We returned to our devil-may-care, corrupt, hedonistic, live-for-today lifestyles. After all, we thought, a pittance of grenade explosions along some nondescript locations cannot harm a fly. In fact, its a sure way to burn some extra calories as we dash for safety, pushing aside other frightened city dwellers as we jostle for a safe place. Its a guaranteed way to work the upper (and lower) body. Unfortunately, however, the militants had more than just mere grenade attacks planned. A daring and callous morning attack inside a church in Garissa quickly snuffed out 17 lives. But that did not wake us up from our habitual slumber. We continued groping each other to provide a false sense of security. I always felt assaulted and violated whenever a security guard ran that implement over me, by the way.

Then this happened.

The spoils of "war"

We have seen it happen in foreign lands whenever there's a sustained conflict. A few ne'er-do-wells plunder and enrich themselves at the expense of the losers. Never mind that they often have nowhere to store their newly acquired merchandise. The lesson was reinforced at home when the attack happened. This time round, however, it was claimed that the loot was captured for safe-keeping, away from all the harsh elements of the weather, perhaps, or to safeguard it from the scores looking on. Old words took on new meanings, for example: mopping up (blowing up safes), in the final stages (just beginning), sanitizing (storming pubs and consuming any alcoholic beverage in a sealed bottle), neutralize (storm empty shops) among many other adjectives.

My personal favorite was "we are now in control of the building."

Five is a big number  

It took a whole garrison to neutralize the attackers. Initially they were rumored to be between five and fifteen, perhaps to save the faces of the Kenyans. CCTV cameras can only confirm four at most. We literally had "tankers" as one person described them, at westgate. Its amazing that such a small number of attackers led to the complete destruction of an entire section of an upmarket mall. This was hardly a surgical operation on our part; This was a surgeon amputating an entire leg in an attempt to cure a broken bone. I'm not sure but i think i can still hear explosions at westgate.

The militants won the battle -the language battle

We may have eventually crushed the terrorists but while the defence forces battled hard to penetrate the barriers erected by the safes, jewelry stores, well stocked pub fridges and, oh yeah, the terrorists, the attackers and all their propaganda shifted the conflict online in an attempt to misinform the authorities and the public....maybe even tell us one or two facts about the attack. At times, the way they did it made one wonder whether this was the online spokesperson of a rag-tag militia hiding somewhere in a bunker, or a westerner tucked away somewhere safe in a suburban neighborhood and tweeting away as he indulges in a heavy breakfast as he struggles to grasp where on the map the African continent is. Sample the following tweets by the 'mujahid':

“Kenyans will not appreciate the situation without seeing death in all its ghoulish detail” said a tweet.

Another read: ''Here are 2 of the Mujahideen inside #Westgate mall, unruffled and strolling around the mall in such sangfroid manner.'' 

And another: "After 4 days of exposing the vulnerability of their nation, the [Kenyan] government ended the siege in a morally reprehensible manner #westgate" 

And this: "In an act of sheer cowardice, beleaguered Kenyan forces deliberately fired projectiles containing chemical agents into the building #westgate"

"Sangfroid?" As i mentioned before, does this to you sound like a man perched in a hot desert somewhere, wrapped up in a Somali scarf, with a magazine of bullets around his waist and clutching at an AK-47? Please draw your own conclusions

The tone and the wording of their communique was head and shoulders above the lackluster online (and off) performance of Lenku and his minions.

Kenyans from all social networks of life weren't left behind either. Many joked about how the rising plume of black smoke indicated that the militants were electing a pope, or how the terrorists holding hostages inside the mall had gotten bored and resorted to smoking shisha.

In a parting shot, the militants tweeted the following riddle:

"Lets play a game:a mall that aint a mall but you call it a mall! decipher it

Lets hope we have all learned as much as we can from this unfortunate act of terror that befell us at westgate.

An uncanny resemblance (Pt. 2)

Legislators come in many shapes, sizes and colors, and our August (read imposing) house has been festooned with men and women from all walks of life. From the brazen, outspoken and rash (some have even been rumored to have gone to the extent of urinating on ballot papers in order to swing elections in their favor), to the humble, confident and unassuming type who get things done without making unnecessary waves or wanton rabble-rousing.

Today's legislator does not fit into the latter category, for he is as virulent and opinionated as they come. It is in fact no coincidence that he ended up as the main voice and proponent of the highly unpopular and incredibly self-absorbed parliamentary motion to increase the legislators' salaries to an astronomical amount. The fact that he had just secured a parliamentary seat notwithstanding, he went ahead to label his constituents as swine, allegedly for having exercised their democratic and constitutional right to cast a ballot.

“If the MPs are thieves, then Kenyans who elected them are also thieves because they are the ones who, in their wisdom, elected these legislators,” he averred. 

With skills such as these, what else does one need to survive in the real wild, no, not in the murky jungle that is Kenya today, but out there in Nairobi national park or some other decorated far-flung hideaway far away from the August house?

An uncanny resemblance

We see and hear them every single day. We have no choice! Even during the moments when we wish to shut out the on-goings out there in the world, they insinutate themselves in our lives with their endless banter, bickering, exchange of ignorance, nit picking and occasional off-the-cuff humor. Yet despite all the rancour and brouhaha, these burly, burping-from-being-overworked-with-eating mandarins do little to improve the lives of the ordinary mwananchi. They seem to be more concerned with growing their bank balances, driving bigger limousines, renovating their mansions to the tune of hundereds of millions of shillings and renting bigger premises in the leafy, serene suburbs of Karen and Lavington for their innumerable mistresses.

If a study was done, perhaps a great percentage of the ordinary Kenyan's life would be preoccupied with meaningless debate about politics. Never mind that this study would add to the rank of useless studies conducted by Synovate. Kenyans would fare so much better if we diverted all the energy and emotion to building our own lives instead. But, to each his own.

Since the media is awash with boring politics, i figure there must be a way to make it interesting and educative and as a result, i devised a little, harmless way to edify those reading this blog by having them play a little game called identify the leader. Its a really simple game actually. A picture of a present or future leader (if we must call them that) is provided. Beside it is a picture from the animal kingdom (sometimes it may actually be a bit difficult to decide which is which) of a beast which has an uncanny resemblance, either by appearance or behavior (sometimes both), to the pictured beauraucrat. A couple of facts about the person and animal are also presented for good measure. The take-away is that you get to jog your memory a little bit; you also get to learn a daft thing or two.

Today, we must lie as low as an antelope, nay, envelope if we wish to identify the leader. His brutish smile says it all; his laughter was once rumoured to have annoyed the gods. He served in the public service for twenty-five years and has the chutzpah to glorify his stay there. He claims to be an avid reader. Despite this, he has bequeathed humanity, particularly the younger generation, with a lovely sight to behold courtesy of his one wife.

Given these traits, a particular species of the animal kigdom would mistake him for one of their own, save for his beautiful offspring. Hyenas usually beget pretty hideous cubs if you ask me. Hyenas are fast and can run for long distances without tiring, much like our mystery leader has lived a long life and served as a civil servant for a long period. Hyenas usually squabble over the spoils of their prey. They are quite vocal and make a wide variety of sounds (among them laughing), again much like our mystery leader.

Speak up! 'Join the dots'

Who is our mystery leader?

More next week.

She hired a gang to kill her husband

The media is ablaze today after the publishing of a story about a woman who conspired to eliminate her husband, apparently because he engaged an extra-marital affair (or two)...and because he neglected his fatherly (and husband) duties.While not in any way condoning or trivializing the matter, these events happen all the time.These events would even be more commonplace if some people had the resources and wherewithal to accomplish them..if the comments on a popular morning radio talk show are anything to go by.

What spikes most peoples curiosity, however, is why the "aggrieved" party never used one of the many avenues made available to couples experiencing marital difficulties.These are too numerous to list here. Further, for a person who was capable of parting with not less than 200,000 shillings for the act, it further deepens the mystery.

For this woman, however, it is too late. Her apparent lack of emotional intelligence and inability to think rationally ultimately got the best of  her.She will spend the rest of her life, not contributing positively to the lives of her two children, but languishing in one of Kenya's infamous prisons.

Certainly this is a turn-up for the books of our security agencies.

La, usiweke kondom mpangoni!

How would you react when you found out -in one way or another- that your spouse is intimately involved with somebody else behind your back? You would probably want to come up with some sort of concrete evidence before confronting them with the truth, wouldn't you? After this confrontation, what would be your reaction when, in supposed mitigation, your spouse pointed out that they were at least using a condom during their secret, passionate liaisons? For many, the mere thought probably causes a strong, unpleasurable physiological response consisting but not limited to a racing pulse, heavy breathing, profound perspiration and protruding capillaries on the forehead. Strong feelings of betrayal, lack of trust and perhaps insecurity would probably follow in tow. Things between the two of you would likely not be the same again.

Infidelity within wed-lock is not a minor matter.There always are casualties. The silly argument in favor of the new controversial advertisement goes like "Since we're engaging in sex outside marriage already, let us continue to dishonor and disrespect the sanctity of marriage, shun our spouses, betray our families, loved ones and ourselves but lets continue to do it with a piece of latex on."

The fact that the statistics point to a majority of HIV infections happening in marriages does not mean that condoms should be introduced for doing so is merely addressing the symptoms and not the cause. What we need to address is WHY married couples are engaging in extra-marital affairs and doing so in a cavalier manner to boot. It doesn't stop there. Pre-marital sex is happening on an unprecedented scale; people falsely believe they are liberated. The statistics are enough to make one shudder.

But the decision to sheath one's nether regions or not ultimately lies with one's self, not the clergy. But there are consequences which transcend that single act of passion, which we must think about and be ready to deal with.Extra-marital affairs leave a trail of destruction and devastation to spouses and children in their wake.

Let us not bury our heads in the sand; we must tackle the bull by the horns lest we all perish in our stupidity.

An early state of the nation

This is an early scorecard or perhaps a prognosis of the performance of the newly elected, blue-eyed boy of Kenyan politics, one Uhuru Muigai Kenyatta.As i write this, the Supreme court is up to its neck in an election petition consisting of supposed "evidence" which links the IEBC with electoral fraud in collusion with other actors.That said, it may be a little premature to judge the performance of a government that's yet to be endorsed by the Supreme court and as such, that is not the purpose of this article.I merely wish to give a prognosis-or a heads-up- on what could be awaiting the President-elect as he embarks on a five year term as the President of the Republic of Kenya.

In his book The Prince, Niccolo Machiavelli writes of 'Dominions acquired by the power of others or by fortune', that 'princes have little trouble rising but experience very much trouble in maintaining their position'.He goes on to write that such princes "depend entirely on the goodwill and fortune of those who have raised them, both of which are extremely inconstant and fickle". He further argues that unless such princes possess extraordinary genius and are able to quickly grasp matters on how to command and take immediate steps to maintain their newly found fortune, the dominion inevitably crumbles or disintegrates.

While not an apples-to-apples comparison, perhaps it would be instructive if we ported Machiavelli's words to our current context of the President-elect and his nascent government. But first, a little history.

It was not until 1997 when Uhuru Kenyatta really stepped into the murky world that is Kenya's politics. He was nominated to parliament and given a ministerial post two years later by his god-father - the then president Daniel Moi. In a subsequent baptism by fire, many certainly remember his political embarrassment in the 2002 general election at the hands of the NARC coalition's presidential candidate Mwai Kibaki. It wasn't until 2008 when Uhuru found his way back to the cabinet courtesy of one Mwai Kibaki. The rest is history. 

It is quite evident that Mr. Kenyatta has many to thank for his ascendancy to the top office in the land. From the former President Moi, the real brains behind Jubilee coalition and king maker William Ruto, to many other stakeholders and to a lesser extent the Kenyan people. How well he is able to wade in the murky waters that is Kenyan politics depends largely on how he balances between working for the Kenyan people and pleasing those who have propelled him to the presidency. And of course, there is still the nagging ICC case that so far has refused to go away. Mr Kenyatta has much on his plate and how well he performs as the head of state will depend very much on whether or not he possesses the 'extraordinary genius' and 'quick grasp of matters' as mentioned by Machiavelli, two traits he may be willing to learn- and learn fast- from his deputy.

Here come the results!

The material day is finally here.....actually, the material day, March 4, 2013, was four days ago.What's not here, however, is the results of the much-awaited election.Every moment up to and including voting day went according to plan -campaigns closed without much friction and voting was peaceful.Then, the usual shenanigans started.The electronic system that is supposed to shorten the tabulation and transmission of votes was jettisoned for the older, more familiar but infamous manual tallying.

This happened amid claims of lack of system integrity by various quarters.My thoughts on this: That is o.k; The way i see it there's really no issue with manual tallying of votes save for the delayed counting, transmission and pronouncement of results.But it appears we're still not out of the woods even with the manual vote tallying, which at this moment is nearing completion with more than 9.7 million valid votes tabulated, because elements of the civil society have moved to court questioning the integrity of the vote.

Lawsuits and counter-suits aside, the pertinent question remains:WHERE do we go from here? A simple question with a not-so-simple answer.First, I am not a pundit on matters litigation but i believe the High Court should throw out redundant cases that are meant to complicate and forestall the conclusion of the electoral process.Second, the IEBC should move with alacrity to conclude the tallying, protests notwithstanding, and announce the final result of the election.It is from this juncture that we will know where to head as a nation.

Long live Kenya

The so-called Tyranny of numbers

R.I.P. Mutahi Ngunyi. Today, i heard about the demise of one of the most clairvoyant political scientists of our time....albeit later learnt that his demise is only true in the online community, not in real life. But what precipitated this online pillorying of this most-celebrated political analyst is a hypothesis majority of the people were unwilling to accept. Ngunyi's assumption, met with vituperation and foaming at the mouth by his most ardent of critics, was that the Jubilee coalition would easily go ahead to clinch the much coveted house on the hill, this based on historical fact such as voter turnout in previous elections and ethnic-based voting or voting along tribal lines. I am by no means a political scientist or pundit much less a scientist but as Ngunyi mentioned in one of his interviews with a local media house, it does not take a rocket scientist or a neurosurgeon to draw some conclusions given the raw statistics.Let us then have a go at it.

According to IEBC voter register statistics, the following were the numbers as at the closing of voter registration in late December. Rift Valley Province has the largest number of registered voters at 3,373,853 out of the 14.3 million national tally. Central was second with 2,190,477, Eastern (2,092,883), Nyanza (1,954,756), Nairobi (1,778,908), Western (1,434,987), Coast (1,164,083), and North Eastern (347,457). We know that for one to be elected president, they will need at least 50 plus one percent of the national vote AND at least 25% in at least half of the counties and we are also aware that voter turn out during the last three general elections has not been greater than 70% but nevertheless, let us now look at how the provinces mentioned above are likely to vote, based on precedent.

For the sake of brevity and fact, we will waive the presidential candidates who are unlikely (based on opinion polls) to garner significant numbers.If we give Jubilee 95% of the Central province vote, no one is likely to dispute that, based on the historical trend of this community voting for its "own". If we give them more than three-quarters of the Rift vote, again, i don't believe this will be met with too much bitterness. Nairobi could swing which ever way, but again, not less than 60%-65% will rest in Jubilee's hands. At this point, Jubilee would be in a commanding lead, most likely for the run off if not the presidency.

What does all this mean? ON PAPER, Jubilee have the numbers; the reality on the ground come election day could be a starkly different one given the ebb and flow of the electorate and the machinations and scheming of those in power.As they say, in politics, twenty four hours is a painfully long duration. And the long and short of it is that Ngunyi has a right to voice his opinion, just like any other private citizen does and going by his incisive, almost prophetic and well thought-out articles in the past, what he said does indeed deserve some consideration and thought. Let us approach his hypotheses with a 'listen and think' attitude rather than placing blind trust in everything he says..

My two pennies...

Party primaries - A harbinger of what awaits us?

I watched with dismay the conclusion of the party primaries this past weekend. If the behavior of party officials, members, and adherents is anything to go by, what happened this past weekend does not bode well for Kenya. I do not mean to be a damp squib but old habits die hard especially when it comes to the Kenyan political process. Sporadic violence, lack of candor on the part of party officials, total disarray and poor planning and logistics was the order of the day. The melee was even further compounded by contestants declaring themselves as winners!

The Swahili have a saying which goes like "Dalili ya mvua ni mawingu" or in English, "Thunderstorms are a sure sign of rain". As noted on the CFR website: http://www.cfr.org/kenya/electoral-violence-kenya/p29761, six factors make the prospects for electoral violence in the forthcoming election particularly high in Kenya. These factors include: Politicization of ethnicity, a close presidential race, a never-before-seen complex election, an ill-prepared Electoral commission, the ICC conundrum and finally, an overstretched and therefore inadequate police force.

The article goes further to suggest possible ways of avoiding or mitigating the violence such as pushing for adequate preparations, intervention of the African Union, expansion of police during the electoral process and having an international observer presence.While some of these recommendations are good, they are easier to imagine than they are to implement.There are many obstacles, lack of political will being the largest and most acute. If we are to have a transparent, credible, and fair election, preparations should have started immediately upon the conclusion of the last general election, not now. For starters, the Agenda 4 items of the Kenya National Dialogue and Reconciliation and the recommendations of Kriegler report should all have been fully implemented by now. Without those, the only analogy that fits us at the moment is that of a motorist attempting to slow down a speeding vehicle without brakes.

The party primaries are over.It appears the safeguards built into the the elections act and political parties act accomplished everything but failed to prevent the decadence in our political parties.It is anybody's guess as to whether the nominees were actually chosen by the electorate or selected somewhere in a serene,upmarket, leafy suburb.

Let us however not forget our last refuge, prayer.For those that believe in the supernatural, the divine, let us borrow some knee pads and begin to supplicate on behalf of our beloved motherland.