It has finally come to fruition, just as many pundits had predicted, Musalia Mudavadi resigned from his post as Local Government Minister and as a member of the Orange Democratic Movement (O.D.M.).Now, there is still a lot of furor in the political circles about the effect of his departure on O.D.M. and also about the validity of his tenure as both a parliamentarian and Deputy Prime Minister. It has to be said that both the constitution and the National Accord are unequivocal about whether or not Mr. Mudavadi should still hold these two posts.
On the vacation of office of an M.P., Chapter 8 and Article 103 of the constitution states that "...The office of a member of Parliament becomes vacant—(e) if, having been elected to Parliament...as member of a political party, the member resigns from that party or is deemed to have resigned from the party as determined in accordance with the legislation contemplated
in clause (2)..".It can therefore safely be assumed that Mr. Mudavadi should resign as an M.P. and seek a fresh mandate from his constituents.It is a done deal for both the D.P.M. and Raila Odinga. For Musalia, whatever happens from this point on, he cannot turn back.It may be a political blunder for him or perhaps, he may end up occupying the most powerful seat in the land.
But, lets ponder for a moment a scenario where the D.P.M played his cards differently last week.With a little help from history, let us see how perhaps he may have ended up in a very powerful position in the latter days to come.
A story is told about an ancient kingdom (Athenia) which planned an attack and subsequent occupation of another, less powerful one(Melos).However, before starting an all-out war, the would-be aggressors dispatched a delegation to try and persuade the Melians to surrender, become allies, rather than suffer humiliation, devastation and ultimately, defeat. In their response however, the Melians argued that their neighbors (who had colonized them) would come to their rescue and also that they would choose to preserve their honor and, in principle, believed in resisting brute force. A last-ditch effort was made by the Athenians who argued that the Melians should not be lead astray by a false sense of honor because honor often brings men to ruin when they are faced with an obvious danger that somehow affects their pride.The Melians would not budge, however, and were eventually invaded and defeated.
When you are weaker, there is nothing to be gained by fighting a useless fight.No one genuinely comes to help the weak -by doing so, they would only put themselves in jeopardy.Like the Melians, had Mr. Mudavadi surrendered in the first place he may have been able to sabotage his boss in a subtle way, or might have gotten what he wanted out of the alliance and left it once he (Raila) was really weakened.Fortunes change and the mighty are often brought down.Surrender conceals great power: lulling an enemy into complacency, it gives one time to recoup, time to undermine, revenge.
Mr. Mudavadi, however, took the easy way out. Perhaps lured by false promises by presumed "Allies", he seems like a bear in the woods walking right into somebody's trap, lured by bait. Only time will tell what lies ahead for him but it appears to me that the so-called Moi "orphans" would have benefited from a lesson on or two on the surrender tactic.
